Thursday, June 25, 2009

Gold now Hot! Hot! Hot!

Since my last post I've invested the $20.5K cash on hand at that time plus another $21.5K of new margin. Reacquired my Coeur D'Alene and Franco Nevada Wts. holdings at a 20+% discount and added to my Aurizon Gold position.

I also made a dumb, mistaken sale of my New Gold Wts. at $.35 (I wanted to sell my US Gold Wts.) I reacquired 15,000 (50% of my position) New Gold Wts. @ $.37 and will probably have to pay more for the other half. Meanwhile I'm still trying to sell my 30,000 US Gold Wts.

I'm looking to buy Pacific Rubialis Energy Wts. (PRE.WT-T) but fear I have missed the boat.

2 comments:

  1. Good News! You didn't miss the boat June 25. The T.PRE.WT closed at $3.78 but July 8 it closed at $3.20. As long as your limit order was not lower than $3.20 you would be up about 40% today, July 27.

    My overall portfolio is up 2% from the beginning of the month, just half as much as the S&P 500, but about the same as the gold spot price. Some gold securities are clearly outperforming the metal.

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  2. From HuronS:

    The impact of a change in a major currency exchange rate on foreign investment, tourism, trade in goods:
    Impact on
    YUAN APPRECIATION EXAMPLE 6/10 8/10 US$ % US economy
    Currency Yuan cost in US$: 0.146412884 0.153846154 UP -4.83%
    Currency US$ cost in Yuan 6.83 6.5 DN 5.08%
    Goods Cost of US goods to Chinese: DN UP Chinese buyers do not like this, and they buy less. US exports DOWN
    Goods Amount of US goods Chinese buy: UP UP US manufacturing sector UP
    Goods Cost/Value in US$ of mineral resources mined abroad UP DN More expensive US cost, holding US manufacturing costs UP, US exports DOWN with lag.
    Goods Above offset by cost of US labor DN UP The cost of US labor would trump the cost of the mineral content for most items exported.
    Goods Price of gold in US$
    Goods Price of oil in US$
    Services US tourism by Chinese UP UP Chinese spend more in US
    Services Chinese tourism by US folks DN UP US citizens spend less abroad
    Services Cost of foreign call center expense DN DN US companies spend more abroad
    Services Attractiveness of off-shore service sourcing UP UP US companies charge less to US citizens for services.
    Capital Return to US capital held by Chinese DN NONE Chinese investors do not like this: The value of their investments already made is DOWN
    This REDUCES the value of US debt already held by Chinese, a big gift from the Chinese to the US
    Attracting new sales of US Gov. Bonds will tend to be MORE EXPENSIVE -- Interest rates UP
    Capital UP CofC DN New foreign investment costs Chinese less; new foreign investment UP
    Capital UP CofC DN Net foreign investment on a biateral basis: UP
    Capital Impact on US asset prices in US$ UP INFL UP Chinese willing to spend the same Yuan for US assets, tending to push US asset prices up.
    Gov Spend IF US debt int rate stays the same, gov. spending not affected by depreciation of $
    Gov Spend THIS IS EXOGENOUS; A POLICY VARIABLE UP HOWEVER, INTEREST RATES WILL RISE, forcing an increase in government spending.
    Gov Spend Interest rates determined by amount of government borrowing, necessity of attracting foreign and domestic investment

    Summary: Most impact on US economy of appreciation of Yuan is POSITIVE
    Impact on US equities:
    Impact on US interest rates:

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